When Texas Tech beat Texas this weekend it lead me to take a quick look into Tech’s schedule, which I found to be soft up until this point. That ultimately led me to do a quick analysis of the entire Big 12 schedule to see the strength of their opponents. The results, which can be found in one of my earlier posts, showed that the Big 12 as a conference didn’t schedule many tough games and that the great records of the highest ranked teams (i.e. Texas Tech and Texas) came at the expense of beating up on lesser competition.
After some further thought, I decided it would be nice to have the same analysis of another conference. That has led to my research below for the SEC. I chose the SEC because it seems as if a consensus of the “experts” have listed the SEC and Big 12 as the strongest conferences in the country this year. Read into this data however you want, but one thing remains clear, WE NEED A PLAYOFF.
SEC Records Against Top 25 Teams At The Time:
Florida 2-0
Alabama 2-0
Mississippi 1-2
Mississippi St. 1-2
Auburn 0-2
LSU 1-2
Arkansas 2-3
Tennessee 0-4
Kentucky 0-2
South Carolina 0-2
Georgia 2-2
Vanderbilt 2-1
Summary: Just like the Big 12, the top teams in the SEC (Florida and Alabama) have good records against ranked opponents, and that all teams have played at least 2 ranked teams.
SEC Records Against Top 25 Teams At The Time – Non SEC Games:
Florida 0-0
Alabama 1-0 (Win over Clemson)
Mississippi 0-1 (Loss to Wake Forest)
Mississippi St. 0-0
Auburn 0-0
LSU 0-0
Arkansas 1-1 (Win over Tulsa, Loss to Texas)
Tennessee 0-0
Kentucky 0-0
South Carolina 0-0
Georgia 0-0
Vanderbilt 0-0
Summary: This proves that for the most part the SEC is just as bad, if not worse than the Big 12, at scheduling tough non-conference competition. A total of only 4 games, and 2 wins, against teams in the Top 25 for the entire conference is evidence that the SEC builds its records against weak competition. The only wins for the entire conference against ranked opponents are Clemson (which is not even close to being ranked anymore) and Tulsa (from the Conference USA). So just like the Big 12, the best win of anybody outside of the conference is over a non-BCS conference Team (the best win for the Big 12 has been over TCU).
SEC Records Against BCS Conference Teams:
Florida 1-0 (Win over Miami, Fl)
Alabama 1-0 (Win over Clemson)
Mississippi 0-1 (Loss to Wake Forest)
Mississippi St. 0-1 (Loss to Georgia Tech)
Auburn 0-1 (Loss to West Virginia)
LSU 0-0
Arkansas 0-1 (Loss to Texas)
Tennessee 0-1 (Loss to UCLA)
Kentucky 1-0 (Win over Louisville)
South Carolina 1-0 (Win over North Carolina St.)
Georgia 1-0 (Win over Arizona State)
Vanderbilt 0-1 (Loss to Duke)
Summary: While this shows that all teams, except LSU, play one game against a BCS conference team, there isn’t a whole lot of exposure to the other BCS conferences. The overall record against BCS conference teams is 5-6, and that includes a loss to Duke.
Conclusion:
I guess I was a little quick to make a judgment on the scheduling of the Big 12. The SEC is just as bad. I am also going to assume that I would find the same results if I did this for the rest of the BCS conferences. It just shows you the state of college football today, where one loss could mean you’ve blown your shot at the National Championship. The only real way to solve this would be for the NCAA to come to its senses and settle this argument on the field with a playoff. Now with what I was hoping would be insightful analysis proven totally irrelevant, I guess now I can go back to rooting for chaos in the BCS.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Analysis of the SEC Records
In response to multiple requests, a similar analysis of the SEC records is forthcoming.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Is the Big 12 Conference Overrated?
With the big win by Texas Tech over Texas this past weekend there has been a lot of talk about the “brutal” schedule Texas has faced, the “challenging” schedule Tech is facing in the near future, and how strong the Big 12 has been this year. Some experts have even claimed that the Big 12 is the best conference in the country. While the best conference argument is saved for another day, and another column (note: I think it’s the SEC this year) all this talk got me thinking and led to the following analysis of the aforementioned “brutal” and “challenging” schedules.
It is true that Texas faced 4 opponents ranked in the top 15 in a row and that Tech will be facing those same teams, but it must be noted that all of those ranked teams were from the Big 12. What my analysis below shows is that just about the only ranked teams that anybody from the Big 12 plays are in the Big 12. So the better Big 12 teams build great records, and corresponding rankings, by beating up on lesser teams. This vicious cycle makes wins later in the year against each other look more impressive than they really should be. Just because Missouri beats up on Southeast Missouri State and Buffalo inflating its record and ranking up to Number 11, should not really mean that Texas has beaten a legit Top 15 team.
The following is a quick breakdown of some stats regarding the Big 12 schedule. But I should preface this with the fact that I only did this for the Big 12, and it is possible that the results would be similar for other major conferences.
Big 12 Records Against Top 25 Teams At The Time:
Texas 3-1
Texas Tech 2-0
Oklahoma 2-1
Oklahoma State 1-1
Missouri 1-2
Colorado 1-3
Kansas 0-3
Iowa State 0-2
Nebraska 0-3
Baylor 0-4
Texas A&M 0-2
Kansas State 0-2
Summary: That the top teams in the Big 12 have good records against ranked opponent, and that all teams have played at least 2 ranked teams.
Big 12 Records Against Top 25 Teams At The Time – Non Big 12 Games:
Texas 0-0
Texas Tech 0-0
Oklahoma 1-0 (Win of TCU)
Oklahoma State 0-0
Missouri 1-0 (Win over Illinois)
Colorado 1-0 (Win over West Virginia)
Kansas 0-1 (Loss to S. Florida)
Iowa State 0-0
Nebraska 0-0
Baylor 0-1 (Loss to Wake Forest)
Texas A&M 0-0
Kansas State 0-0
Summary: This proves that for the most part the Big 12 doesn’t even schedule, let alone play, tough non-conference competition. A total of only 5 games, and 3 wins, against teams in the Top 25 for the entire conference is concrete evidence that the Big 12’s records are built on playing weaker teams. The best win of anybody outside the conference is over a TCU team from the Mountain West, a non-BCS conference.
Big 12 Records Against BCS Conference Teams:
Texas 1-0 (Win over Arkansas)
Texas Tech 0-0
Oklahoma 2-0 (Wins over Cincinnati and Washington)
Oklahoma State 1-0 (Win over Washington State)
Missouri 1-0 (Win over Illinois)
Colorado 1-1 (Win over West Virginia, Loss to Florida St.)
Kansas 0-1 (Loss to S. Florida)
Iowa State 0-1 (Loss to Iowa)
Nebraska 0-1 (Loss to Virginia Tech)
Baylor 1-2 (Win over Washington St., Loss to Wake Forest and UConn)
Texas A&M 0-1
Kansas State 0-1 (Loss to Louisville)
Summary: While this shows that all teams, except Texas Tech, play one game against a BCS conference team, there isn’t a whole lot of exposure to the other BCS conferences (with the exception of Baylor). Also, the little exposure there was this year includes two games against Washington, and one against Washington State, arguably some of the worst teams in the history of the BCS. The overall record against BCS conference teams is 7-8, and the team that is supposed to be the number 2 or 3 team in the county didn’t even schedule a game against another BCS conference.
Conclusion:
Although Texas Tech did have a nice win over Texas last weekend, I wouldn’t read all that much into it considering the obvious rank inflation of the top Big 12 teams that this research shows. Texas was a paper number 1, just as Oklahoma before it, all based upon the weak scheduling of the Big 12. If Texas Tech runs the table it will be impressive and they will have rightfully earned their place in the BCS championship, but if Tech gets beat in the upcoming weeks and there is not an undefeated team in the Big 12, my plea is that the Big 12 goes unrepresented in the BCS championship game and that if USC remains with one loss they play the winner of the SEC, as both teams will have rightfully deserved. Of course that is forgetting about Penn State, but I’ll save my thoughts on that for when the time is right.
It is true that Texas faced 4 opponents ranked in the top 15 in a row and that Tech will be facing those same teams, but it must be noted that all of those ranked teams were from the Big 12. What my analysis below shows is that just about the only ranked teams that anybody from the Big 12 plays are in the Big 12. So the better Big 12 teams build great records, and corresponding rankings, by beating up on lesser teams. This vicious cycle makes wins later in the year against each other look more impressive than they really should be. Just because Missouri beats up on Southeast Missouri State and Buffalo inflating its record and ranking up to Number 11, should not really mean that Texas has beaten a legit Top 15 team.
The following is a quick breakdown of some stats regarding the Big 12 schedule. But I should preface this with the fact that I only did this for the Big 12, and it is possible that the results would be similar for other major conferences.
Big 12 Records Against Top 25 Teams At The Time:
Texas 3-1
Texas Tech 2-0
Oklahoma 2-1
Oklahoma State 1-1
Missouri 1-2
Colorado 1-3
Kansas 0-3
Iowa State 0-2
Nebraska 0-3
Baylor 0-4
Texas A&M 0-2
Kansas State 0-2
Summary: That the top teams in the Big 12 have good records against ranked opponent, and that all teams have played at least 2 ranked teams.
Big 12 Records Against Top 25 Teams At The Time – Non Big 12 Games:
Texas 0-0
Texas Tech 0-0
Oklahoma 1-0 (Win of TCU)
Oklahoma State 0-0
Missouri 1-0 (Win over Illinois)
Colorado 1-0 (Win over West Virginia)
Kansas 0-1 (Loss to S. Florida)
Iowa State 0-0
Nebraska 0-0
Baylor 0-1 (Loss to Wake Forest)
Texas A&M 0-0
Kansas State 0-0
Summary: This proves that for the most part the Big 12 doesn’t even schedule, let alone play, tough non-conference competition. A total of only 5 games, and 3 wins, against teams in the Top 25 for the entire conference is concrete evidence that the Big 12’s records are built on playing weaker teams. The best win of anybody outside the conference is over a TCU team from the Mountain West, a non-BCS conference.
Big 12 Records Against BCS Conference Teams:
Texas 1-0 (Win over Arkansas)
Texas Tech 0-0
Oklahoma 2-0 (Wins over Cincinnati and Washington)
Oklahoma State 1-0 (Win over Washington State)
Missouri 1-0 (Win over Illinois)
Colorado 1-1 (Win over West Virginia, Loss to Florida St.)
Kansas 0-1 (Loss to S. Florida)
Iowa State 0-1 (Loss to Iowa)
Nebraska 0-1 (Loss to Virginia Tech)
Baylor 1-2 (Win over Washington St., Loss to Wake Forest and UConn)
Texas A&M 0-1
Kansas State 0-1 (Loss to Louisville)
Summary: While this shows that all teams, except Texas Tech, play one game against a BCS conference team, there isn’t a whole lot of exposure to the other BCS conferences (with the exception of Baylor). Also, the little exposure there was this year includes two games against Washington, and one against Washington State, arguably some of the worst teams in the history of the BCS. The overall record against BCS conference teams is 7-8, and the team that is supposed to be the number 2 or 3 team in the county didn’t even schedule a game against another BCS conference.
Conclusion:
Although Texas Tech did have a nice win over Texas last weekend, I wouldn’t read all that much into it considering the obvious rank inflation of the top Big 12 teams that this research shows. Texas was a paper number 1, just as Oklahoma before it, all based upon the weak scheduling of the Big 12. If Texas Tech runs the table it will be impressive and they will have rightfully earned their place in the BCS championship, but if Tech gets beat in the upcoming weeks and there is not an undefeated team in the Big 12, my plea is that the Big 12 goes unrepresented in the BCS championship game and that if USC remains with one loss they play the winner of the SEC, as both teams will have rightfully deserved. Of course that is forgetting about Penn State, but I’ll save my thoughts on that for when the time is right.
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