With the big win by Texas Tech over Texas this past weekend there has been a lot of talk about the “brutal” schedule Texas has faced, the “challenging” schedule Tech is facing in the near future, and how strong the Big 12 has been this year. Some experts have even claimed that the Big 12 is the best conference in the country. While the best conference argument is saved for another day, and another column (note: I think it’s the SEC this year) all this talk got me thinking and led to the following analysis of the aforementioned “brutal” and “challenging” schedules.
It is true that Texas faced 4 opponents ranked in the top 15 in a row and that Tech will be facing those same teams, but it must be noted that all of those ranked teams were from the Big 12. What my analysis below shows is that just about the only ranked teams that anybody from the Big 12 plays are in the Big 12. So the better Big 12 teams build great records, and corresponding rankings, by beating up on lesser teams. This vicious cycle makes wins later in the year against each other look more impressive than they really should be. Just because Missouri beats up on Southeast Missouri State and Buffalo inflating its record and ranking up to Number 11, should not really mean that Texas has beaten a legit Top 15 team.
The following is a quick breakdown of some stats regarding the Big 12 schedule. But I should preface this with the fact that I only did this for the Big 12, and it is possible that the results would be similar for other major conferences.
Big 12 Records Against Top 25 Teams At The Time:
Texas 3-1
Texas Tech 2-0
Oklahoma 2-1
Oklahoma State 1-1
Missouri 1-2
Colorado 1-3
Kansas 0-3
Iowa State 0-2
Nebraska 0-3
Baylor 0-4
Texas A&M 0-2
Kansas State 0-2
Summary: That the top teams in the Big 12 have good records against ranked opponent, and that all teams have played at least 2 ranked teams.
Big 12 Records Against Top 25 Teams At The Time – Non Big 12 Games:
Texas 0-0
Texas Tech 0-0
Oklahoma 1-0 (Win of TCU)
Oklahoma State 0-0
Missouri 1-0 (Win over Illinois)
Colorado 1-0 (Win over West Virginia)
Kansas 0-1 (Loss to S. Florida)
Iowa State 0-0
Nebraska 0-0
Baylor 0-1 (Loss to Wake Forest)
Texas A&M 0-0
Kansas State 0-0
Summary: This proves that for the most part the Big 12 doesn’t even schedule, let alone play, tough non-conference competition. A total of only 5 games, and 3 wins, against teams in the Top 25 for the entire conference is concrete evidence that the Big 12’s records are built on playing weaker teams. The best win of anybody outside the conference is over a TCU team from the Mountain West, a non-BCS conference.
Big 12 Records Against BCS Conference Teams:
Texas 1-0 (Win over Arkansas)
Texas Tech 0-0
Oklahoma 2-0 (Wins over Cincinnati and Washington)
Oklahoma State 1-0 (Win over Washington State)
Missouri 1-0 (Win over Illinois)
Colorado 1-1 (Win over West Virginia, Loss to Florida St.)
Kansas 0-1 (Loss to S. Florida)
Iowa State 0-1 (Loss to Iowa)
Nebraska 0-1 (Loss to Virginia Tech)
Baylor 1-2 (Win over Washington St., Loss to Wake Forest and UConn)
Texas A&M 0-1
Kansas State 0-1 (Loss to Louisville)
Summary: While this shows that all teams, except Texas Tech, play one game against a BCS conference team, there isn’t a whole lot of exposure to the other BCS conferences (with the exception of Baylor). Also, the little exposure there was this year includes two games against Washington, and one against Washington State, arguably some of the worst teams in the history of the BCS. The overall record against BCS conference teams is 7-8, and the team that is supposed to be the number 2 or 3 team in the county didn’t even schedule a game against another BCS conference.
Conclusion:
Although Texas Tech did have a nice win over Texas last weekend, I wouldn’t read all that much into it considering the obvious rank inflation of the top Big 12 teams that this research shows. Texas was a paper number 1, just as Oklahoma before it, all based upon the weak scheduling of the Big 12. If Texas Tech runs the table it will be impressive and they will have rightfully earned their place in the BCS championship, but if Tech gets beat in the upcoming weeks and there is not an undefeated team in the Big 12, my plea is that the Big 12 goes unrepresented in the BCS championship game and that if USC remains with one loss they play the winner of the SEC, as both teams will have rightfully deserved. Of course that is forgetting about Penn State, but I’ll save my thoughts on that for when the time is right.
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4 comments:
Why don't you do the same analysis with the SEC? What ranked teams did they play non-conference? I see Miss lose to Wake Forest, Arkansas get slaughtered by Texas, and the only win by Alabama against a VASTLY overrated Clemson.
If you really want to show the Big 12 is overrated, why don't you prove the SEC is better. Alabama looked average in 2 games, Florida lost to Ole Miss. Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State have all lost close games to a highly ranked team. That's more than can be said from LSU and Georgia getting their tails whipped by Florida, or Auburn/Tennessee showing how overrated they are. People talk about how great defenses are in the SEC, well their offenses are just THAT bad. Any decent offense (Florida) tears them apart. The top 9 in the Big 12 could easily score on most teams in the SEC.
Thanks for the thoughts, and I think you are right. All of the BCS conferences are going to continue their weak scheduling, until the day we get a playoff.
If you really want to show the Big 12 is overrated, why don't you prove the SEC is better. Alabama looked average in 2 games, Florida lost to Ole Miss
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